Morningstar’s recently published 2026 Global Outlook Report showcases the insights of Morningstar’s global research professionals, as informed by high-quality market indexes. 2025 was a wild ride for global markets, but what might be in store for 2026?
Let’s see what clues Morningstar’s indexes are giving us:
AI arms race. When it comes to deciding whether or not to invest in artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks, it may not even be a choice, according to the Global Outlook. In fact, US stocks in the Morningstar Global Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Index make up approximately 30% of the value of the Morningstar US Target Market Exposure Index.
“Even those investors using a broadly diversified US market index are heavily exposed to AI-driven returns,” according to Brian Colello, senior equity analyst with Morningstar Research Services. “That’s why it is so important for investors to understand the dynamics driving the growth of AI and its impact on the broad market and individual companies.”
Mega-cap rules. Similar to the situation with AI-related stocks, concentration risk can also creep into a broad equity portfolio from a market cap standpoint. The Global Outlook points out that the top 10 holdings within the Morningstar US Market Index ― a broadly diversified collection of 1,198 large-, mid-, and small-cap stocks ― currently represent more than 36% of the index.
“Not only is the US stock market increasingly concentrated in only a few mega-cap stocks, but eight of the 10 largest stocks by market capitalization are directly tied to the artificial intelligence buildout boom.” said Dave Sekera, Morningstar’s chief US market strategist in his November 2025 US Stock Market Outlook. “And, while investors should certainly be cautious about concentration risk, the average valuation of these AI-related stocks is close to fairly valued according to our base case outlook for the growth dynamics of these companies.”
The rise of private markets. According to Morningstar, over the past 25 years the number of listed US companies has roughly halved, while global private markets have surpassed $15 trillion. Investors can no longer afford to ignore the potential opportunities that exist in privately held companies. In fact, the Morningstar PitchBook Unicorn 30 Index ― which tracks the performance of the largest and most liquid late-stage venture-backed companies with a valuation of $1 billion or more ― has risen more than 67% this year.
“For much of the past several decades, private markets were effectively the domain of large institutions and a narrow segment of ultra-high-net-worth-investors,” said Zane Carmean, director of quantitative research for PitchBook. “That dynamic is changing, and what was once accessible only through multi-year, multi-million-dollar commitments can now be integrated into diversified portfolios with far greater ease.”
©2025 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The information, data, analyses and opinions contained herein (1) include the proprietary information of Morningstar, (2) may not be copied or redistributed, (3) do not constitute investment advice offered by Morningstar, (4) are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security, and (5) are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar has not given its consent to be deemed an "expert" under the federal Securities Act of 1933. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar is not responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, this information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. References to specific securities or other investment options should not be considered an offer (as defined by the Securities and Exchange Act) to purchase or sell that specific investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any investment decision, consider if the investment is suitable for you by referencing your own financial position, investment objectives, and risk profile. Always consult with your financial advisor before investing.
Indexes are unmanaged and not available for direct investment.
Morningstar indexes are created and maintained by Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar® is a registered trademark of Morningstar, Inc.